What to Read in The Hindu Editorial( Topic and Syllabus wise)

Editorial 1: The outlook for India in the year ahead

Context

While 2024 saw political uncertainty across the globe, 2025 would require deft handling by India’s policymakers.

 

Introduction

India is at a pivotal moment in its history. It is among the leading nations in the world when it comes to economic growth and political stability. India today projects an atmosphere of peace, which is seemingly out of place in a world that is undergoing a profound shift in its economic and geo-political landscape. India is today privy to the rise of new economic and political groupings.

• The year 2024 was a period of pronounced political uncertainty across the globe.
• Much of the world was a mute witness to the multiple and concurrent conflicts that threaten peace and stability today.
  1. This is specially true of Europe and West Asia.
• One major tragedy still unfolding is Gaza, which has few parallels, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict contains the seeds of a much wider conflict in the future.
•  India has, however, managed to steer itself successfully within this geo-political landscape.

 

A year of new troubles

•  
  • This may, however, be too good to last.
  • The year 2025 seems poised to bring in a host of fresh troubles that will require deft handling on the part of India’s policymakers.
  • At this time, it might, hence, be wise for India’s leaders to heed the message contained in an ancient Chinese saying that says “the wind sweeping through the tower heralds a rising storm in the mountain.”

 

Assessment of the Situation with China

• Border negotiations and disengagement: I begin by assessing the situation with India’s largest neighbour, China.
  1. Much is being made of the recent border negotiations and an apparent disengagement at the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh.
  2. This was followed by the first formal meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping meeting in five years, as well as the resumption of the Special Representatives’ talks on border issues.
• Reality of disengagement: Wiser heads would know that disengagement does not mean ‘dispute resolution’.
  1. The border conflict still remains alive and unchanged.
  2. Far more needs to be done to reach any kind of détente.
  3. India, hence, cannot afford to ‘take its eye off the ball’.

 

China's Strategic Moves to Outflank India

• Strengthening Security Cooperation: Meanwhile, China has, of late, taken a series of steps to strengthen security cooperation with nations of the Global South, which are aimed at outflanking India.
• Facilitating Palestine Factions Reconciliation: It recently facilitated reconciliation talks that were held in Beijing among various Palestine factions.
• Progressing the Global Security Initiative (GSI): In September last year, China and African nations jointly agreed to progress the China-sponsored Global Security Initiative (GSI) and deepen cooperation in areas such as counter terrorism, disaster management and public health.

 

China's Diplomatic Maneuvering at International Summits

• Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit: China also managed to steal a march over India during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit held in Pakistan in October.
  1. It took full advantage of the absence of the Indian Prime Minister at the Summit to mute India’s voice at a forum that is perceived as being anti-West.
• Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit: Mr. Xi again took full advantage of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, in Peru in November, to strengthen ties with ‘traditional enemy’, Japan.
  1. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has since agreed with Mr. Xi to promote a ‘mutually beneficial relationship …based on common strategic interests’.

 

The churn in South and West Asia

• Churn in South Asia: It is in India’s traditional area of influence, viz., South Asia, however, that the biggest churn is taking place — or has already taken place.
  1. Questions have been raised after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh as to whether India indeed has a proper ‘neighbourhood policy’.
  2. Today, India appears almost isolated in the region and with the eclipse of Ms. Hasina and the emergence of a caretaker regime (which is openly hostile to India), India appears friendless.
• Relations with neighboring countries: Both Nepal and Sri Lanka today appear to look like ‘fair weather friends’ — at least in so far as the present is concerned.
  1. The status of the Maldives is a subject of debate.
  2. Pakistan has always been inimical to India.
  3. Afghanistan today does not seem to figure prominently in India’s calculations.
  4. Bhutan, under the present King, does not display the same warmth towards India, appearing more intent on balancing relations with China.
  5. Across the South Asia region, therefore, how the roll of the dice would turn out is a matter of speculation.

 

Impact of Developments in West Asia

• Syria's changing landscape: Far more problematic could well be the impact of the current churn in West Asia, more specifically, the developments in Syria of late.
  1. The ouster of the Assad regime in Syria is certain to have a cataclysmic impact on that part of the world, which will have relevance for countries in the wider region, including India.
  2. How India deals with the situation resulting from the collapse of the erstwhile Bashar al-Assad regime, and the takeover by a Sunni group, the ‘Hayat Tahir al Shams (HTS)’, is unclear.
• HTS and its shifting allegiances: The HTS leader, who carried the nom-de-guerre Abu Mohammed al Julani, has since reverted to his real name, Ahmed Hussain al Sharaa.
  1. The HTS leader was previously linked to al Qaeda, and even briefly flirted with the Islamic State (ISIS), but is today displaying a more moderate outlook.
  2. It may, however, be too early to determine what the outlook for Syria is, and for the region as a whole under the new dispensation.
• The rise of Sunni Power in Syria: The HTS was able to wage a successful offensive against the Assad regime largely because it could identify with the Sunni majority in Syria, in contrast to the Assad regime that had, of late, become more reliant on Russia and Iran to maintain its hold over the country.
• India’s changing view on Assad: From India’s viewpoint, the Assad family (belonging to Syria’s Alawite group, a minority sect of Shia Islam) was initially viewed as a stabilising force in the Gulf region, especially during the difficult days that rocked parts of West Asia in the wake of the Arab Spring.
  1. India, home to a Shia and Sunni population, had greatly welcomed this. More recently, many of these perceptions had altered.

 

Wider Implications of a Sunni Regime in Syria

• Impact on the 'Axis of Resistance': The implications of a Sunni regime in Syria are certain to be widespread.
  1. One by one, elements of the so-called ‘axis of resistance’ are being dismantled.
• Israel and Iran's Shifting Role: On the other hand, Israel, despite its pogrom in Gaza, seems to be gaining the upper hand in West Asia.
  1. Iran has been a loser, and it might result in Iran’s influence across West Asia declining.
  2. Iran may also no longer be the same revolutionary force in West Asia, that it was perceived to be following the 1979 revolution in Iran.
  3. The Ayatollahs in Iran are also set to face a major setback, and a major churn in Iran cannot be ruled out.
  4. The Shia world as a whole would, thus, be the overall loser, and militias such as the Hezbollah could well be cut to size.
• Effects on the Pro-Palestine Movement: Implicitly, the pro-Palestine movement would be adversely affected and Palestine may not persist as a live issue.
  1. Global jihad could also face a deathblow.

 

Emerging Powers and Changing Alliances

• The biggest gainers: The biggest gainers will in all likelihood be Israel and Türkiye.
• Russia's Position: Russia’s influence has suffered with the fall of the Assad regime.
  1. However, given Russia’s relations with Türkiye’s strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the pragmatic approach taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia could well retrieve the situation.

 

Conclusion: Do not rule out the digital threat

In conclusion, it needs to be mentioned that notwithstanding the developments in the geo-political arena, it is the digital threat that is set to achieve a quantum leap during 2025. The situation warrants careful assessment and sending out of a dire warning about the dangers present in the digital arena. Some of this was evident during the latter part of 2024, but this is likely to grow exponentially during 2025. Convergence among technologies is threatening national infrastructure in a manner that had never previously been envisaged. According to data available with Agencies, there was a dramatic rise in cyber-attacks occurring in India in the recent period. Almost all major companies and Government institutions were hit by denial of service and ransomware attacks. All this is set to increase in geometrical progression during 2025 and the following years.

 

Editorial 2: India needs to prioritise preventive care

Context

Regular screenings, especially for high-risk individuals, could significantly reduce the incidence of serious conditions.

 

Introduction

India is facing a healthcare crisis that is growing both in scope and cost. We face an alarming dichotomy today: while life expectancy of Indians is expected to increase further, many are facing disease burden earlier. As the country sees an alarming rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and cancer, the financial burden on individuals and the healthcare system continues to escalate.

 

Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in India

• Rise in NCD-related Deaths: NCDs accounted for about 65% of all deaths in 2022, up from about 50% in 2010-13, as per the National Family Health Survey-5.
• Prevalence of risk factors: The prevalence of risk factors for NCDs is worryingly high:
  1.  
     1. One in four adult men are hypertensive.
     2. One in eight are diabetic.
• Increase in Cancer cases: Further, breast, lung, and cervical cancer are on the rise, with the median age of diagnosis occurring earlier than global averages.
• Impact of early diagnosis: Millions of people facing these conditions could have been managed better, at often lower costs, had they been diagnosed earlier.
• Shifting focus to prevention: In this context, shifting the focus from reactive treatment to proactive prevention is crucial, not only to improve health outcomes but also to control the ever-increasing healthcare expenses.

 

A growing economic burden

• Health budget allocation: The Union Budget for 2024 allocated ₹87,657 crore to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, marking a 13% increase from the previous year.
  1. While this increase is a step forward, experts agree that the allocation remains insufficient given the scale of India’s health challenges.
• Total health expenditure: The National Health Accounts show the total current health expenditure estimate in 2021-22 as ₹7.9 lakh crore, growing at a rate more than overall inflation.
  1. The share of household health expenditure, including insurance contributions, while decreasing over time, still drives nearly 50%+ of the spend. This remains one of the highest globally.

 

Economic Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)

• Projected economic burden: The World Health Organization (WHO) projects that the economic burden of NCDs in India will surpass ₹280 lakh crore by 2030, equivalent to ₹2 lakh per household.
  1. This escalating cost, driven by rising healthcare expenses and productivity losses, poses a severe threat to financial stability, particularly for middle and lower-income families.

 

The Role of Preventive Healthcare

• Impact of Regular Screenings: Regular screenings, especially for high-risk individuals, could significantly reduce the incidence of serious, life-threatening and debilitating conditions and their resultant cascading economic and social effects.
  1. In a large hospital network, for every 1,000 people screened, at least three people are identified for pre-emptive cardiac or cancer interventions.
• Targeted Screening Investigations
  1. Targeted but periodic screening investigations for individuals such as:
     • Mammograms for breast cancer.
     • Pap smears for cervical cancer.
     • X-ray or low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer.
     • Ultrasound for liver disease.
     • Echocardiography and treadmill stress test for heart disease.
  2. These screenings, beyond physical vitals and blood tests, enable early intervention.
• Cost of comprehensive health Checks: Comprehensive health checks (which can cost anywhere between ₹8,000 and ₹15,000 in metro cities today) are perceived as expensive.

 

Policy Recommendations for Preventive Healthcare

• Government's role in preventive healthcare: If the government were to enable a step change in preventive health services adoption, it could significantly reduce the overall financial burden on individuals and the healthcare system.
• Key policy tools: Tax incentives, subsidised screenings, and public awareness are key policy tools that can enable this.
  1. As part of the Finance Act, 2013, the Union government made efforts to encourage preventive healthcareby offering a ₹5,000 tax deduction under Section 80D of the Income Tax Act for health checks.
  2. However, this amount has remained stagnant for the last decade, despite the 12-14% estimated healthcare inflation rate and the rising cost of healthcare services.
• Revised tax deduction limit: It would be prudent for policymakers to consider revising the tax deduction limit to at least ₹15,000 in the Union Budget for 2025-26.
  1. This would incentivise more individuals to undergo preventive health checks, potentially saving the nation several thousand crores in future healthcare costs.
  2. The incremental tax foregone to the exchequer from such a measure is estimated to be less than ₹5,000 crore, a worthy investment towards improving the health of the nation.

 

The path forward

We need to prioritise preventive care to mitigate the increasing economic and financial burden of chronic diseases. A three-pronged approach can potentially drive a change in the adoption of preventive health services.

• Strengthening Early Intervention Capabilities
  1. First, we need to strengthen early intervention capabilities through the Ayushman Health and Wellness Centres, including capturing trends effectively and enabling risk-driven targeted screening using AI-enabled imaging modalities to offer lower cost screenings at scale.
• Improving Screening Adoption at Private Centres
  1. Second, we need to improve the adoption of screening at private centres by encouraging insurers and private health providers to offer a subsidised minimum screening programme for every individual between 40-60 years.
  2. For example, for women after the age of 40, a mammogram is necessary annually or once in two years, based on her risk factors.
  3. Exploring part funding through allocations from proceeds from the healthcare cess or the proposed 35% GST slab on tobacco and sugar products can help reduce funding needs.
• Increasing Tax Deduction Limit
  1. Finally, the increase in tax deduction limit can further incentivise people to complete comprehensive health checks.

 

Conclusion

In conclusion, India's rising burden of non-communicable diseases demands urgent attention. By focusing on preventive care, implementing early interventions, and incentivizing regular screenings, we can reduce the financial strain on individuals and the healthcare system. Policymakers should revise tax incentives, encourage screening programs, and support health initiatives to ensure a healthier future, ultimately saving significant healthcare costs.