08 August 2025 Indian Express Editorial
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EDITORIAL 1: Russia is a red line for India
Context
India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval arrived in Moscow on August 5, to discuss regional stability, counter-terrorism, energy security and defence purchases.
India and Russia relations
- According to reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India later this year. This will be Putin’s first trip to India in four years.
- The high-level activity in the Russia-India corridor is not matched by a similar engagement in the India-US space.
- The US tariffs come at a time when India is re-entering the global commercial arena as an equal player.
- The country is currently negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with six countries, including the US, having successfully closed 16 trade agreements over the last five years.
- The ASEAN-India FTA is being considered for review; more than two dozen countries are in line to develop trade links with India.
- At home, India is building its industrial capacity and developing new markets and supply chains, eyeing the China+1 space.
- Discounted oil purchases from Russia have kept India’s economy running, and prices stable. And Russia has been a reliable security partner.
- The S-400 air defence system performed admirably during India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.
- Upgraded Russian equipment is still desirable in New Delhi, especially as it comes with technology transfers and possible co-production, unlike the US with its many restrictions.
- Doval is likely to ask for more. India has already contracted with Russia for $50 billion worth of military purchases over the last 20 years.
Contrast with US
- In contrast, India has bought $24 billion in US defence equipment since 2008, and at the Modi-Trump meeting in Washington in February, a promise to buy more was made.
- India’s own domestic defence industry is catching up; it has tripled in value to $14 billion over the past decade,and is rapidly ramping up.
- Already 65 per cent of defence equipment is made domestically, compared to a 65 per cent import dependence from 10 years ago.
- The allure of Russia for India has increased since Trump made nice with Pakistan immediately after Operation Sindoor, and the tariff threats have intensified public opinion in Moscow’s favour. This is a good time then, for India and Russia to accommodate each other.
Some frustrations
- Putin the strategist sees India cornered by Washington, and will play to it. Russia has some frustrations with India which will be conveyed to NSA Doval.
- First, though bilateral trade has reached a record $68.7 billion, over 90 per cent of it is oil, and India runs a massive deficit with Moscow.
- Second, US and EU sanctions against Russia have forced the rupee-rouble trade practice back into the bilateral,and now 90 per cent of all India-Russia trade is in local currencies.
- Russians are unable to invest much in India, as Moscow needs funds to run its own war-time economy.
- Third, on the Ukraine war, Russia has been less than happy with India’s make-peace-not-war statements.
- Regionally, though Russia has managed to separate its historical proximity with India from its new and deep friendship with China, at the SCO, there are clear sides: Russia-China-Central Asia on one side, with India being the outlier.
- Bilaterally, India has specific needs from Russia, viz defence equipment. India would like to buy more, but Moscow is using large quantities of its production for the Ukraine war.
- It doesn’t compare with India’s current unhappiness with Washington. Sanctions on traditional oil suppliers like Iran and Venezuela have cut off those supplies for India, and now penalties on Russian oil threaten to do the same, destabilising India’s growing economy.
- Trump has been cavalier about the QUAD, which was meant to keep China in check in the Indo-Pacific.
- The next QUAD meeting, due to be held in India in October, may be a damp squib without the presence of the US President.
- Meanwhile, Trump’s irritation with BRICS, which he sees as nations colluding to displace the US Dollar’s dominance, will only increase as India takes the chair of the plurilateral in 2026.
- India has been holding off a reconvening of the Russia-India-China Trilateral, but if it does so, Trump will have one more grouse against India.
Way forward
- New Delhi will have to take a hard geopolitical call, and take the bargain available on the table: Economy-greasing oil from Russia for now, and a plan for future diversification.
- On Ukraine, India could take a stronger position, emphasising that the West acknowledge the fundamental reason for Russia’s war with its neighbour.
- India could project a harmonious partnership with Russia, with Putin visiting New Delhi in the next few months – a sure way to infuriate Trump.
EDITORIAL 2: Stay calm, negotiate smartly
Introduction
The American tariff tantrum has arrived on India’s shores, and we must not panic.
Trade with America
- America buys nearly a fifth of what we export, worth $87 billion last year. A blow this size can rattle factory floors, shake the rupee, and spook investors.
- Yet, India must view this punch as negotiable, and respond with calm, clarity and a plan. To be effective, we must first understand why India faces 50 per cent tariffs — almost the highest in Trump’s global trade war.
The Reasons
- Four factors explain Trump’s escalation.
- First, the White House is burying what commentators in Washington DC call strategic altruism toward India — carve-outs justified by the promise of a long-term partnership.
- Second, and perhaps most critically, Trump appears personally offended that India didn’t acknowledge the US’s possible role in the May 10 India-Pakistan ceasefire.
- Third, there is an echoing of Silicon Valley’s irritation with India’s rules requiring data storage within its borders.
- Modern AI is ravenous for information, and India holds one-fifth of humanity’s supply.
- Fourth, the administration wants to punish India’s discounted Russian oil purchases,prioritising domestic political theatre over economic logic.
- Reading between the lines, this represents high-stakes bargaining rather than permanent hostility.
- However, given the grip of tariff primacy in the White House and personality clashes between world leaders, New Delhi must prepare for tariffs to persist even after negotiations.
New Delhi must prepare
- First, Delhi must target specific exemptions, not blanket relief. Pharmaceuticals and smartphones appear exempt for now; we must push to include textiles, jewellery, and electronics.
- Second, it must mobilise allies within the US. Tariff walls often crack from within. American retailers facing expensive Christmas inventory will protest.
- We should feed them hard numbers showing how tariffs will increase US inflation and hurt American consumers.
- Third, India should prepare retaliation, but hold fire: Publish a list of politically sensitive US exports worth billions — California almonds, Washington apples, Wisconsin motorcycles. Announce duties will apply only if talks fail. The threat alone creates pressure.
- Four, bundle tariff reductions on luxury goods and automobiles with concessions America values: Increased purchases of US natural gas and controlled access for American financial technology firms.
- Five, while keeping strategic ties separate from trade disputes makes sense, Delhi has cards to play.
- Multi-billion-dollar drone purchases and the landmark GE-HAL fighter engine deal can proceed more smoothly once tariffs disappear — a carrot without weakening our Indo-Pacific deterrence.
- Six, India should support vulnerable sectors and extend credit to export-focused small businesses and boost incentives for garments and pharmaceutical companies. These are temporary bridges, not permanent subsidies.
- Finally, it must manage personalities pragmatically. India must defend its dignity and strategic autonomywhile protecting economic interests. Direct dialogue between Modi and Trump could help, even if core disagreements remain.
A larger chessboard
- Beyond immediate tactics lies a larger chessboard. India cannot yield on agriculture and dairy — these sectors support hundreds of millions of livelihoods and ensure food security.
- What it must do is build coalitions with countries facing similar tariffs: Vietnam, Bangladesh, Brazil, and even close US allies like the EU and Japan.
- And, despite the current frost, even China. With the WTO proving ineffective, new partnerships must emerge.
- Consider adopting China’s proven workaround, Mexico and Canada can be used as intermediate stops.
- Export diversification becomes essential. With the US taking 20 per cent of our merchandise exports, over-dependence creates vulnerability.
- Fast-track the pending EU trade agreement, implement the recent UK deal, and expand ties with Gulf countries and Latin America.
- India’s ace remains our services sector, largely exempt from tariffs. The rise of Global Capability Centres — where American firms build their largest non-US offices in India — deepens this integration.
- Trade disputes are now permanent features of global politics. The world’s largest economy is willing to weaponise market access, and global supply chains will keep re-routing in search of certainty.
Conclusion
For India, the answer is not panic, nor a stunt of hyper nationalism, but methodical statecraft: Negotiate firmly, build alliances, diversify always, and prioritise domestic competitiveness.
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