What to Read in Indian Express Editorial( Topic and Syllabus wise)

Editorial 1 : Spending and Growing

Context: To grow economy, help consumers spend

 

Introduction: The economy had decelerated sharply to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2024-25. The advance estimate does indeed show a moderation, with GDP growth estimated to slow down to 6.4% in 2024-25 from 8.2% in 2023-24. The positive aspect is that growth is likely to pick up in the second half of the year.

 

Reasons for Moderation in Growth

• Government Capital Expenditure (Capex)
  1. Government capex has been the main driver of growth post-Covid, but it witnessed a slowdown due to state and central elections.
  2. In the first eight months of the current fiscal year, the Centre’s capex has fallen by 12%, while aggregate state capex (20 large states) has fallen by 6% compared to the same period last year.
  3. Major Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) have reported a 10.8% decline in capital expenditure during the first half of the year.
  4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (investment growth) is estimated to decelerate sharply from 9% in 2023-24 to 6.4% in 2024-25.
  5. Despite elections ending, government capex is unlikely to significantly improve in the second half, raising concerns about investment growth.
• Private Consumption
  1. Sharp pick-up in private consumption to 7.3% in 2024-25 from a feeble 4% in the previous year.
  2. Around 55% of India’s GDP comes from private consumption, hence pick-up in consumption is supportive of overall growth.
  3. There is a recovery in rural consumption, supported by healthy agri production.
  4. Urban consumption is showing some signs of moderation.
  5. High food inflation (around 7.6%) so far has been a dampener. But with food inflation likely to moderate, consumption is estimated to pick up in the coming months.
• External Sector
  1. Goods and services exports are showing an improvement with estimated growth of 6% in 2024-25 compared to 2.6% in the previous year.
  2. Services exports continue to record healthy growth, while merchandise exports are also showing some signs of recovery.
  3. With a new President in the US, there are a lot of uncertainties on the trade-policy front which will have repercussions for global trade.
  4. This is already getting reflected in the sharp volatility we are seeing in the financial markets with continued strengthening of the US dollar.

 

Sector-Wise Analysis

• Agriculture: Healthy agricultural growth, aided by a good monsoon.
• Services: The services sector is estimated to record a healthy growth of 7.2%, observing some moderation from 7.6% recorded in last year.
• Industrial Sector: Deceleration in industrial growth — from 9.5% in the previous year to 6.2% this year.
  1. There has been a sharp slowdown in mining and manufacturing, and a healthy momentum has continued in the construction sector.

 

Fiscal Position and Challenges

• Nominal GDP growth is estimated at 9.7%, lower than the Union budget's expectation of 10.5%.
• Capex shortfall: The Centre is likely to miss its capex target by around ₹1.5 trillion.
• Fiscal deficit target
  1. Current target: 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.
  2. Recommendation: Slower fiscal consolidation to focus on growth-boosting measures.
  3. Revised trajectory: 4.7% fiscal deficit by 2025-26, with 4.5% achieved by 2027-28.

 

Recommendations for the Union Budget

• Capex-Led Recovery
  1. Continue the focus on government capex while supplementing it with consumption-boosting measures.
  2. A sustained rise in domestic consumption is critical, especially with slow private investment recovery and uncertain external demand.
• Consumption-Boosting Measures
  1. Cut in personal income taxes to boost consumer sentiment and spending.
  2. Focus on job creation and skilling to raise household incomes and sustain consumption growth.
• Fiscal Strategy
  1. Delay fiscal consolidation efforts to focus on growth, even if the fiscal deficit exceeds 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.
  2. Ensure that general government debt remains on a downward trajectory despite slower fiscal consolidation.

 

Conclusion

India’s economic growth has moderated due to weak government capex, slow private investment recovery, and global uncertainties. To regain a higher growth trajectory, the upcoming Union budget must focus on a balanced approach between capex, consumption-boosting measures, and job creation.

Editorial 2 : Precaution is Key

Context: HMPV virus: Don’t panic, keep vigil

 

Introduction: HMPV Virus was first detected in the Netherlands more than 20 years ago and regularly surfaces during the winter months. In several developed countries, HMPV is the second-most frequently detected virus among infants. Reports of increasing hospitalisation because of HMPV infections in China this year have sparked concern.

 

Indian Context

• In India, regular laboratory tests to detect HMPV virus are not conducted.
• Studies by the ICMR and other medical research agencies indicate that it is among the common flu pathogens.

 

Government's Response to HMPV

• Surveillance and Monitoring
  1. The Centre has directed state governments to step up surveillance for HMPV infections.
  2. India’s respiratory disease monitoring mechanisms, strengthened after Covid, are functioning well.
• Public Awareness Measures
  1. Advisories for precautionary steps
     • Wearing masks
     • Avoiding close contact with people exhibiting flu-like symptoms.
     • Regular handwashing
  2. Special precautions for vulnerable groups:
     • Children under five years
     • Senior citizens
     • Patients with chronic respiratory conditions (e.g., asthma, COPD, bronchitis).

 

Risks and Treatment of HMPV

• Vulnerable Groups
  1. First-time HMPV infections are most serious in children under five and individuals with chronic respiratory diseases.
  2. Symptoms can become severe when the infection progresses to the lower respiratory tract.
• Impact on Patients with Chronic Conditions: Aggravates conditions like asthma, COPD, and bronchitis, which are on the rise in India.
• Treatment
  1. In most cases, the infection is self-limiting.
  2. Recovery can be achieved through symptom management, good nutrition and adequate hydration.

 

Current Status of Surveillance in India

• Urban Healthcare Facilities: Most reported HMPV cases have been detected in hospitals, indicating functioning surveillance systems in cities.
• Integration of the Private Sector
  1. Private healthcare accounts for more than 80% of services in India.
  2. A major challenge is integrating private healthcare facilities into the respiratory disease surveillance network.

 

Way Forward: Recommendations for Strengthened Monitoring

• District-Level Surveillance
  1. Stepping up monitoring in rural and district-level healthcare facilities.
  2. Ensuring timely detection and reporting in underserved areas.
• Focus on Vulnerable Groups: Enhanced monitoring for children, senior citizens, and individuals with chronic conditions.
• Real-Time Data Collection: Taking stock of real-time data to inform proactive interventions.
• Adherence to WHO Protocols: Applying the precautionary principle to respiratory infections as outlined by WHO.
• Public Awareness Campaigns: Increasing awareness among the general population about HMPV and preventive measures.

 

Conclusion

The Centre’s proactive approach to monitoring and precautionary advisories is commendable. However, challenges remain in integrating the private sector into the surveillance network and expanding monitoring to rural and district levels. A coordinated effort involving public and private healthcare systems, combined with public awareness campaigns, will be crucial to mitigating the impact of HMPV